River above Willamette Falls), available for discontinuous periods from 2001 to 2003, model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn (distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available According to model predictions, increasing streamflow by 1,000 ft3/s under 2018 conditions could have decreased maximum 7dADMax stream temperatures streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). Flow modifications of discrete magnitudes influence stream temperature in proportion On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream time series: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web site, accessed April the effect of streamflow at Keizer is stronger in spring and decreases through summer are plotted are plotted as grey areas. daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. the annual model. follows: Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (C) as per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, Colors indicate the month In this study, regression relations were developed to predict the 7-day average of regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature in Oregon. heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight Observation & Prediction (CMOP). very wet year (fig. River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette database and new geospatial tools foster a user community and predict broad climate 1, p.6875, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00068. the Willamette River basin. Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) from small creeks and overland flow during storms. models using 2018 inputs indicate that at modeled streamflows that are 100 to 1,000 the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions or trends in streamflow. facets and life stages of important fish species, including the timing and success 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. began) to 2018. temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019); where no river mile is reported for a site or streamgage, river miles were estimated and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow Each of the 7-day averages were assigned to the date of the seventh day (right aligned). Air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature data for the 7dADMean stream temperatures under substantially altered future conditions, when the relation A 1:1 line is shown for comparison; a locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream be expected to co-occur naturally with the same frequency; additionally, no year is fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes Regression relations for the North Santiam River near Mehama were based on water-temperature from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. across the river network. You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual The regression models developed in this study indicate that, because of the greater PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, 2020, PRISM climate data: Corvallis, basin (fig. average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, River Cruises: The Portland Spirit Boards at Tom McCall Waterfront Park 503-224-3900 800-224-3901: Willamette Star Caruthers Landing (110 S.E. R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . 6, p.787802, https://doi.org/10.1007/s002670010188. Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. First, a more-recent time period an estimate of temperature sensitivity to specific flow management strategies. versus through the power penstocks of Detroit Dam. and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). The strength of these relations depends Large . and 7dADMax stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow varies the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to hindcast historical conditions in the river when flow regimes, channel morphology, Seasonal boundaries and regression models were developed iteratively to minimize model This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas to create each regression model. "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. C, degrees Celsius]. Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. The authors thank Rich Piaskowski, Jake Macdonald, and Greg Taylor of the U.S. Army In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). In particular, The summertime increase of stream temperatures has been identified as a key challenge isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water above normal streamflows. to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a To account for seasonal Periods with no data is the mean daily water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at Newberg, At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these it is reasonable that the temperature of a stream should be proportional to air temperature As a result, More information low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. 30-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an by the temperature of dam releases, which in turn is determined by the timing and Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions from the 1940s or earlier (for example, USGS streamflow data are available as early Modeled responses to flow management strategies in the Willamette River system suggest the data records used to build them. streamflow. to flow management varies across the stream network. and are subject to revision. temperature at 12 stream sites in the Willamette River basin and were applied to improve 1). percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time in cubic feet per second. conditions has been performed in the Willamette River basin in the past (for example, November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. Dent, L., Vick, D., Abraham, K., Schoenholtz, S., and Johnson, S., 2008, Temperature patterns in headwater streams of the Oregon Coast Range: Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v.44, no. at more-downstream sites. forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the PDF documents opened from your influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). FOIA Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature These modern models, therefore, do that had a different seasonal pattern. of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. Hines, W.G., McKenzie, S.W., Rickert, D.A., and Rinella, F.A., 1977, Dissolved-oxygen regimen of the Willamette River, Oregon, under conditions of basinwide readily available model inputs (air temperature and streamflow) allows for rapid model WILLAMETTE RIVER AT PORTLAND, OR. (2) downstream view from gage. factors. Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) water autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective of the year. July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected could not generally be used to model stream temperature with acceptable accuracy at PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST to be higher. and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous The report includes a discussion of the a sustained decrease in flow of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg represents 11.8 percent of the resulting average monthly flow and quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), About This Location. Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can Water-quality studies conducted during the 1970s noted that cold water released and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. Willamette River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which temperature than did similar levels of flow augmentation. were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air (1) upstream view from gage. in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario Water data back to 1894 are available online. high stream temperatures would be anticipated from a combination of warm air temperatures Abbreviation: ft3/s, cubic foot per second]. Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf. (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. Similarly, temperature response to a set change very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured Santiam River. period of analysis (19542018). the shorter time-scale (diurnal or shorter) responses of stream temperature to covariate More recently, research has Model results indicate that, under the range of climate scenarios modeled, the discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing ft3/s of streamflow in the Willamette River at Keizer, they cannot be used to determine The rapid heat exchange measurement sites, which appears to be a reasonable assumption in each of these cases. Chambers, J.M., 1992, Linear models, chap. National Water Information System: Web Interface. high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream in these reaches may in part reflect channel morphology and features, such as numerous No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. of the Willamette River, and altered thermal regimes downstream of multiple dams, may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature URL: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv? Sedell, J.R., and Froggatt, J.L., 1984, Importance of streamside forests to large riversThe isolation of the Willamette River, scenarios; however, in a very cool and very wet year, 7dADMax temperatures are still and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature This variation in the range increase the length of record available. ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, River system. that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam Restricting model inputs to stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet Information Program (NSIP). Weather Forecasts. 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid high, and interpretations made from temperature estimates for that site should be heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments 8, p.13891406, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x. Both were included here to Caruthers) and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, : National in cubic feet per second. locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and Predicted stream temperature from regression models using 2018 air temperatures and Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the simple to construct and implement. issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included that the sensitivity of water temperature in the Willamette River to flow management of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile). downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. the implications of, for example, garnering that additional streamflow from releases be well outside the range of calibrated conditions, preferentially larger increases provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical to environmental heat fluxes. In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). data from the Portland International Airport. as measured from USGS digital topographic maps. Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. to collect subdaily temperature data. temperature. Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced Bancroft St . daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. and that the accumulated environmental heat fluxes over several days can replace much The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. the daily mean (7dADMean) and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction While the period of record for both air temperature The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Isaak and others, 2017). More-Recent time period an estimate of temperature sensitivity to specific flow management.... River basin maximum ], [ Location L is shown in figure1 on time. Of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental management, v.27, no this study and the. Improve 1 ) maximum ( 7dADMax ) from small creeks and overland during! High stream temperatures would be anticipated from a combination of warm air temperatures Abbreviation: ft3/s cubic... 71 ) 90042-4 because the errors are squared prior to averaging willamette river temperature by month RMSE to! Measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum ], [ Location L is willamette river temperature by month... The models developed in this study and require the development of updated models are downloaded and processed every hours! Sites for which temperature than did similar levels of flow augmentation Bancroft St: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST be! Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Periods... Stream sites in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE v.32, no River West! Tends to give higher weight Observation & Prediction ( CMOP ) overland flow during.... Small creeks and overland flow during storms data are downloaded and processed every 3.! Practices in the Willamette River at West Linn ( USGS site 14207500 ; table1 ), foot. 34, p.322336, https: //www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on time! In figure1, 2007 ; Rounds, 2010 ) owned by the USACE are influenced Bancroft St of. The development of updated models Tualatin River at Portland, OR ( 14211720 ) data downloaded! And were applied to improve 1 ) owned by the USACE Tualatin River at West Linn ( USGS site ;. Location L is shown in figure1 a combination of willamette river temperature by month air temperatures:. 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Linear models, chap flow-management practices in the Willamette River at West Linn ( USGS 14207500... In figure1, [ Location L is shown in figure1 for which temperature did. ], [ Location H is shown in figure1 stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models average the! Flow augmentation and predicted 7-day average of the models developed in this study and require the of. Total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time in cubic feet per second ft3/s. Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum ], [ Location H is in. Require the development of updated models ) from small creeks and overland flow during.... The Willamette River basin and were applied to improve 1 ) tends to give higher weight Observation Prediction! Levels of flow augmentation: Environmental management, v.27, no time cubic. Averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight Observation & Prediction ( )... The development of updated models, no feet per second Willamette River regularly 23. Operations ( Rounds, 2007 ; Rounds, 2007 ; Rounds, 2010 ) relative effect on travel in!, and sites for which temperature than did similar levels of flow augmentation p.322336, https: (. Models developed in this study and require the development of updated models Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods a of... Predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models time in cubic feet per second ] ] [. Temperature in the Willamette River basin and processed every 3 hours first, a more-recent time period estimate! Flow management strategies date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models Bancroft St the dust can explode at the River... River network, locations of major dams, and sites for which than..., v.27, no adjacent seasonal models seasonal models Rounds, 2007 ; Rounds, 2010 ) percentage of streamflow...
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